The macro backdrop for bonds remains constructive—in our view, yields are attractive in real terms—but navigating H2 2026 requires careful attention to duration risk, fiscal dynamics, and idiosyncratic credit risk.  The balance of 2026 remains an income story more than a capital gain trade.

  1. A hawkish Fed and a flatter curve
  2. Credit spreads leave little margin for error
  3. Caution in CMBS conduits, opportunities in SASB
  4. Carry is the story in leveraged credit, but caution is warranted
  5. Emerging markets is still a bright spot, but country specific
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