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 Home > News & Views > Market Commentary >  Article
Stocks headed for troubled waters from oil, consumption woes
Stocks head for troubled waters as oil surges
Consumer-price index, retail sales on tap as oil trades at $126 a barrel
By Nick Godt, MarketWatch
Last Update: 12:01 AM ET May 10, 2008

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- With the first-quarter earnings season almost past, investors will continue to face mounting concerns about consumption and the U.S. economy next week, with retail sales and consumer-price data likely to reflect the impact of surging energy and food prices.

Crude for June delivery rose as high as $126.25 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange Friday, before closing at $125.96, up $2.27 on the session. See Futures Movers.

"'If I can't keep up at the pump, I have to cut back somewhere else,'" said Paul Nolte, director of investments at Hinsdale Associates. "We're hearing that story from retailers."

Highlighting the woes of a weak U.S. economy and surging prices, retailers reported April sales over the past week, with mostly discounters such as Wal-Mart Stores inc. (WMT) and Costco Wholesale Corp. (COST) coming out ahead as shoppers loaded up on necessities. See full story.

Another victim of surging crude prices, FedEx Corp. (FDX) , often a barometer of economic activity, warned Friday after the close that its earnings would come short of expectations. See full story.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average ($INDU) fell 120 points, or 0.9%, on Friday, hit by resurging woes from the financial sector, as American International Group Inc. (AIG) posted a staggering loss. For the week, the Dow lost more than 300 points, or 2.4%. See Market Snapshot.

The S&P 500 Index ($SPX) fell 9.4 points to 1,388 on Friday, for a weekly loss of 1.8%. The Nasdaq Composite Index (COMP) dropped 5 points to 2,445 Friday and lost 1.3% over the week.

Oil prices, along with forecasts of a continuing surge in the price of grain and other soft commodities, didn't help.

"Headline inflation is poised to pop further," according to Doug Porter, economist at BMO Capital Markets. "Globally soaring energy prices could put further upward pressure on food costs, aggravating an already dire set of circumstances.

"Global growth may take a hit, with the United States, Europe and Japan particularly at risk," he wrote in a note.

That might spell bad news for multinationals' overseas sales, one of the last bastion of hopes for corporate earnings.

With 422 of the S&P 500's companies having reported so far, earnings are expected to have fallen 17.4% from the year ago, according to Thomson Financial. Most of the problems lie with the ailing financial sector, where results remain crushed by write-downs linked to bad home loans.

"This season was a tale of two earnings: which came from overseas and which came from the financial sector and the U.S.," Hinsdale's Nolte said. "Banks and GE (GE) got whacked, but the likes of Caterpillar (CAT) , Deere (DE) and Intel (INTC) did fine and said that international is doing real well."

Next week, telecom firm Sprint Nextel Corp. (S) , insurer MBIA inc. (MBI) and XM Satellite Radio Holdings Inc. (XMSR) are due to report Monday.

Wal-Mart along with home builder Toll Brothers Inc. (TOL) will report Tuesday.

Mortgage lender Freddie Mac (FRE) and retailer Macy's Inc. (M) are due Wednesday.

Hewlett-Packard Co. (HPQ) will be the highlight Thursday after the market close.

Consumers and oil

Consumers and inflation also will remain in the spotlight. On Tuesday, the Commerce Department will release April retail-sales numbers and import-prices data.

Wednesday will bring the April consumer-price index, along with weekly data on petroleum inventories.

"The CPI will be very important," said Sam Stovall, market strategist at Standard & Poor's. "That's what everyone is focusing on. If we get higher than expected numbers, it could be that it's the '70s all over again -- stagnant growth together with surging inflation.

"That would not be good," Stovall added.


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